A larger regional war is emerging following the fall of the city of Goma in DRC to the rebels of the March 23 Movement (M23).
The capture of Goma, the capital of the strategic, mineral-rich province of North Kivu in eastern DRC, is part of a broader offensive led by the M23 since 2022 to take control of these territories. This initiative is accompanied by an attempt to establish a parallel civil administration in areas controlled by the M23, as well as an intensification of mining.
The evolution of the regional positions of Rwanda, Uganda, Burundi, and the DRC constitutes a risk factor for the regionalization of the conflict. The main international partners are also distracted and show a lack of coordination in the region. In addition, the position of Rwanda, which since 2012 had positioned itself as a key provider of regional security at the international and regional levels, is no longer reassuring. The fall of Goma thus raises fears of the beginning of a new period of instability in the region when it is known that the Congo wars of the 1990s and 2000s also began in eastern DRC, before involving seven African armies. “If nothing is done, the worst may be yet to come for the inhabitants of the east, but also beyond the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC),” warned the UN human rights chief in the region, indicating a “high risk of escalation throughout the sub-region.”
A joint summit of the East African Community (EAC) and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) heads of state was held in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania, over the weekend, with the call for an “immediate and unconditional ceasefire” and an end to hostilities in eastern DRC as one of its measures.
The M23 movement is supported by the Rwandan Defense Force (RDF) to support Rwandan interests in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). In addition to the 6,000 M23 troops, approximately 4,000 Rwandan forces are currently in the DRC, and UN investigations have shown that the M23 also receives support from Uganda.
However, Rwanda does not admit to providing military support to the M23 but insists that it will do whatever is necessary to defend itself. President Paul Kagame says that the priority for his country Rwanda is to destroy an armed group formed by the perpetrators of the Hutu genocide, who massacred Rwandan Tutsis and then fled to what is now eastern Democratic Republic of Congo. He also accuses the army of the Democratic Republic of Congo of joining them and others in massacring Congolese Tutsis “whom the M23 claims to protect” and threatening Rwanda.
A political will for de-escalation is possible as an immediate challenge to contain the conflict and limit its damage.
